The DeGen Bible to Financial Freedom - Vol.42
$CNY is under a two-front war. If this situation is mirrored in DeFi, all the traders now would heavily be shorting $CNY as per on-chain movement of the central bank selling US bonds to support the currency value.
Week 18 August - 25 August 2023
What's wrong with the East? - Mars Captain
🧠 Observations
- The expression of the elephant in the room describes the best the economic situation in China. $CNY is under a two-front war. The People's bank of China has a difficult time to decide between protecting real estate (by increasing interest rate) and protecting export (by devaluing the currency). So far, we can see the CCP has opted for the latter and as we see these Chinese real estate giants falling down one by one.
- Captain has expressed his concern over $CNY in SEAN Times vol.37 using the Curve analogy. If this situation is mirrored in DeFi, all the traders now would heavily be shorting $CNY as everyone sees the on-chain movement of the central bank attempting to sell US bonds to support the currency value... Oops, not financial advice, guys. Please don't, it's fiat, it's not crypto. (Well, we were told that fiat is real? LOL!) I hope no traditional finance people read this post.
- The market is so dry that a fabricated friend.tech thing can shoot up the baby phase of Base to the moon. Come on. Arbitrum has the most organic retail traffic on L2, Optimism has the most enterprise level adoption (even Base is based on OP Stack). Are we that sure about friend-to-earn? We have seen StepN, and multiple similar failures. This is a good tactic to kick off the ecosystem, but DeFiLama isn't saying there is any other thing going on on Base... Watch your steps, Base Degenz.
- Yeah, SpaceX sold, but it was last year and some regular listed company practice. So, we see the size of Elon is size whether it's past or present tense. Did Singapore's stable framework or Hong Kong's Hashkey taking retail investors FOMO the market? Sorry, their size is not size, we are in crypto, not in TradFi, not in banking. Understand this will help us navigate opportunities more easily.
💵 Stablecoin & Market Landscape
- Stablecoin market share remains high in reference to the total crypto market capitalization. 11.36% of stablecoin (124B) on 1.09T crypto market.
Reminder: Mid-NOV 2021, this percentage was around 4ish% with a 3T total MC. Now we are at 11ish% with a 1ishT total MC.
- Now at 1.09T. Still hanging around on the 1T level. Going steady.
Reminder, June and Nov 2022 witnessed a bottom of 800ish B MC vis-a-vis the market’s top in NOV 2021 at 3T.
Infographics
- If we look at the NFT market as an independent crypto cycle, we can see the old blue-chips like BAYC, Crypto Punk, Azuki as BTC, ETH, XRP, then you have Milady as the Dogecoin.
- If Captain's analogy makes sense, that means when Milady crashes, the other NFT OGs will still crash more. Memecoin is the last category to lead and crash. So NFT's abyss hasn't bottomed yet.
- Looks like we have some movements to keep a close eye on.
- Not that Captain is not convinced with Base. But, crypto is a grassroots movement. If some billionaire backed stuff can fight organic traffic, I mean, please do. Did you ever see human controlling the nature win? Arbitrum is where you see the nature, not Base. Sorry, Captain is just emotional about corporate monopoly, despite he has good feelings towards Coinbase.
- Look, if we have faith in Base, we might as well look at the upcoming opBNB. The queen of EVM is fostering a princess or a price at least for layer 2.
- NFT isn't Captain's most favourable, though we do acknowledge its value. Looking at stats like this one simply reflects how difficult a nobody would be able to fight against corporate monopoly given the same technology.
- Winning isn't just about your having the sharpest sword. There is an invisible and intangible context, culture, history that your sword can never fight. This is what we think about NFTs, it's gonna make brands more profitable but not too much the grassroots.
- Basically, these RWAs are short term T-bills right...
- Data cosmetics, we like some graph and fancy visualisation, but we also needa question what is represented.
🔢 Index
- SpaceX sold BTC old news, + traditional media house amplifier, only pushed down 10ish points + 7% decline in $BTC price.
- The lesson here, is that crypto people should not underestimate the traditional media's power and a lot of us live in echo chambers of decentralisation and data sovereignty. If some WSJ or Bloomberg repost a 1-year old news can push down 7% of the elephant. Think how niche and small our market is for now.
- CBBI getting close to Fear index. What is the catch here?
📰 Current affairs
Starfish Finance:
BTC
ETH
Layer 1s/ Major DeFi
NFTs
Macro econ/ Regulations
Research reports/videos (DYOR)