Week 3 Apr - 10 Apr 2023
Boring markets test the faithful - Mars Captain
- The only remarkable trend in the last three weeks is the decline of stablecoin market cap. But with such a relatively small total crypto market cap. Captain thinks people just swapped their stables (like Binance & USDC hodlers) to BTC mostly. We don't see any hype on Ethereum, despite the imminent Shanghai Upgrade. If I might refresh our subscribers' memory, post-LUNA crash summer 2022, the market pattern was highly identical to the current one, difference this time is the BTC emphasis.
- So, there is a lot new stuff to explore in the BTC ecosystem. Captain likes Stacks, but don't forget Interlay on Polkadot, despite there is a lot of disappointment and inflated developer activities in the Kusama realm. In a way, we might see all the DeFi, NFT, Metaverse and whatever initiated in Ethereum a prelude/experiment of what's gonna happen in BTC.
- A Turbulent week is starting, US CPI, Ethereum Shanghai upgrade, Chicago CME interest change, notably FED's March meeting minutes will be released. Not an easy week post-Easter.
- But wait, don't forget the dragon in the East is hosting (another) week of Web3 events in Hong Kong after a month of events with more exhibitors than participants.🥱🥱🥱 (Seriously, you fomo into that 💩?)
💵 Stablecoin & Market Landscape
- Stablecoin market share remains high in reference to the total crypto market capitalization. 10.8% of stablecoin (132.9B) on 1.23T crypto market.
Reminder: Mid-NOV 2021, this percentage was around 4ish% with a 3T total MC. Now we are at 10ish% with a 1ishT total MC.
- Now at 1.23 T. Still hanging around on the 1T level. Going steady.
Reminder, June and Nov 2022 witnessed a bottom of 800ish B MC vis-a-vis the market’s top in NOV 2021 at 3T.
- Oil has penetrated every corner of the modern industrial world. Looking at oil price is as interesting as looking at fear index.
- Actually, the bigger picture is the declining overall volume on NFT trades. It is the end of a generation, jpegs evaluated at millions of dollars.
- Not gonna play my smartass here. I quote BTC magazine's original statement, "It’s worth pointing out the historical correlation between ISM PMI and SPX year-over-year performance (another leading indicator of economic recession). Historically, traditional markets have bottomed after the ISM PMI has bottomed out."
- There is a lot of going-ons in the BTC ecosystem these days. This SEAN times volume covers a lot of BTC stuff and they all look very interesting and somehow you can see a similar pattern of the ETH-led NFT summer in 2021.
- It's been stagnant on the 60 level for 3ish weeks. As per other market data points. If it doesn't break 🔼, it will soon ⏬.
- Again, another stagnant data point. Wen breaks?
📰 Current affairs
Let's wait for the Shanghai upgrade in two days.
Layer 1s/ Major DeFi
Macro econ/ Regulations
Research reports/videos (DYOR)